October 23, 2010 – 6 pm Eastern
by Kindle Nation’s Crackerjack Army of Astute Undergraduate Interns, and the Editor
Where was the biggest increase? No surprise here. “Worldwide Electronics & Other General Merchandise” sales, which is the category that includes the Kindle device and the astonishly popular (and profitable) new lighted Kindle covers, grew 68% to $3.97 billion. For those of you who are keeping score at home, that’s 52.5% of the company’s total worldwide revenue.
Publishers Weekly reports that Amazon “is expecting a blowout fourth quarter in terms of sales with revenue projected to increase between 26% and 40%, although it said that operating income could be anywhere from down 24% to up 18%.” Always looking for an excuse to create volatility, after-hours day traders interpreted that report to mean “soft margins,” and the stock fell 4% while the markets were closed, but when the market re-opened today investors took over — with a more nuanced understanding of Amazon’s plans to invest heavily in the warehousing and fulfillment costs required to support that “blowout fourth quarter” — and Amazon’s share price closed today at $169.13, three dollars above its previous all-time high and up over 50% in the past 90 days.
Kindles Appeal to Kings and Commoners Alike. A recent USA Today story talks about the growing appeal of the Kindle for book readers and publishers everywhere. Besides citing the recent AAP figure we reported on earlier this week (that e-books now comprise 9% of market), the story quotes some heavy-hitters and ordinary citizens to substantiate that point, including:
- Novelist Stephen King, who says he does nearly one-third of his own reading on an iPad or Kindle, sees e-books becoming 50% of the market ‘probably by 2013 and maybe by 2012.
- HarperCollins CEO Brian Murray reports ‘a sea change in the past few months’ among new best-selling books: ‘On some books, the e-books are outselling the hardcovers.’
- Peter Osnos, founder of PublicAffairs Books says “in the same way that people moved from silent pictures to talking pictures to movie theaters to television to television-on-demand. We are adapting to the notion that we can choose where, when and how we read books.”
- In Roanoke, Va., Liz Jones, 58, a legal secretary, says her iPod Touch with a Kindle app is ‘so much easier to carry than a regular book.’”
How long ago was November 2007? There are different ways to count. A little over 1,000 days ago. Or a little over 5 million Kindles ago.
The article cites a disheartening statistic from the National Association of College Stores: digital books compose under 3 percent of textbook sales. But, as more academic e-book titles become available, NACS expects that share to reach 10 to 15 percent by 2012
Our take? With exciting projects like the Clearwater High School Kindle project described in our recent post, Hundreds of Kindles May Be Coming to a High School Near You!, it seems more likely that the real tidal wave of college campus Kindle adoption will roll in over the course of the next two or three years as today’s high school students matriculate.
Our take is that, while the Nook until now has been very much in the decade-long B&N; tradition of doing exactly what Amazon does, two years later and not as well, the tables may be turning. Rumors are rampant that B&N; will launch a full-color $249 Nook as early as this Tuesday, and if the company hits a home run it could end up actually taking the fight to Amazon for the 2010 holiday season. Amazon is already planning to copy one Nook feature — ebook lending — in coming weeks.
But we’ll see, and we note that B&N; would have to display much greater product-launch acumen than we saw with last year’s pathetic Nook 1 launch to become a serious player.
Gobry’s focus on catalog is on target, but he whiffs badly on his implication that Apple’s iBooks catalog makes it a contender. iBooks selection and pricing is a big double FAIL, and is the primary reason for a market share discrepancy in which, according to recent reports, the Kindle Store dominates the iBooks Store by 76% to 5% in ebook content sold.