By Stephen Windwalker
Editor of Kindle Nation Daily ©Kindle Nation Daily 2010
I received an email overnight from Amazon promoting refurbished Kindles in the Warehouse Deals store, which suggests to me that there’s a significant quantity of these refurbished models to move.

The refurbished 2nd-generation Kindle DX — Kindle DX Wireless Reading Device, Free 3G, 9.7″ Display, White, 3G Works Globally – 2nd Generation —  is going for $299.99, with a U.S. power adapter (supports 100V-240V) and USB 2.0 cable included. New units are still being offered at $359, and of course the Kindle DX Wireless Reading Device, Free 3G, 9.7″ Display, Graphite, 3G Works Globally – Latest Generation is just $20 more at $379.

Meanwhile, the refurbished Kindle Wireless Reading Device, Free 3G, 6″ Display, White – 2nd Generation is being promoted at $169.99, also with a U.S. power adapter (supports 100V-240V) and USB 2.0 cable included. There are no new units for this model, and used Kindle 2 units begin, as of this writing, at $160. And of course, pre-orders for the Kindle Wireless Reading Device, Free 3G + Wi-Fi, 6″ Display, Graphite, 3G Works Globally – Latest Generation is just $20 more at $189, and pre-orders for the Kindle Wireless Reading Device, Wi-Fi, 6″ Display, Graphite – Latest Generation are $30 less at $139.

Both of the pre-ordered new models are sold out, and their detail pages currently read “Orders placed today are expected to ship on or before September 8th.”

When I met with a couple of Amazon representatives on July 26 for my sneak preview of the Kindle 3G and Kindle Wi-Fi models, I half-joked that I appreciated the 30-day windowing they were providing since it would help to create demand for all my older Kindles on eBay so that I could clear the decks for the nifty new models. Indeed, my nearly newborn Graphite DX left here the other day with my Kindle friend Rick A. so he could try it out before dropping it off for me at a UPS drop-off hub.

Jokes aside, all of these changes in offerings led Rick and I into an interesting discussion about how Amazon must have a small but very well-informed sub-group of marketing algorithm wizards with a rather high Amazon security clearance among whose jobs it is to manage Kindle product release dates, off-price offerings, and the like with several important objectives:

• Avoid confusing the marketplace with too many separate hardware generations
• Balance the desire to create buzz and new-product momentum with the need to tamp down unrest among the several waves of previous-generation Kindle owners who might feel burned at having paid the “early-adopter tax” which got them a less full-featured Kindle at a much higher price
• Manage the effects of Amazon’s no questions asked, hassle-free 30-day return policy so that it has a positive overall effect on customer experience and the marketing benefits of the “test drive a Kindle” program without creating too powerful an undertow of recently-purchased Kindle returns whenever there is a new model announcement
• Maintain a positive partnership with Target or any other authorized Kindle retailers so that they can make the most of new Kindle offerings while managing their own individual policies on Kindle returns
• Manage all of these elements
  so that newest, best offerings are positioned for optimized holiday season sales and well-prepared to maintain a steady sales flow during off-peak periods
• Project short-term and mid-term sales, manage supply lines, and plan production with sufficient accuracy so as to avoid real stock-out situations without over-producing to the point where it would have a negative effect on cash flow or expand inventory too greatly

All of which led to speculation that:

• It may make good sense for Amazon to announce a new half-generation advance of the Kindle DX, somewhere around October 25 of this year, that includes the major recently announced enhancements for the Kindle 3G including the new WebKit-based browser, the accessibility features such as voice-guided menus, and a faster processor.
• The $299 price point currently associated with the refurbished 2nd-generation Kindle DX units would be a great, very natural price point for a new wifi-only Graphite Kindle DX to be launched in February or March as a hedge against the usual post-holiday sales doldrums. (January would be too soon, because of the 30-day return policy).
• With the three major release points for 6-inch Kindle generations having been November 2007, February 2009, and July-August 2010 — what a tidy 18-month cycle! — the logical time for Amazon to launch the Kindle 4 with magical, revolutionary®, reading-friendly new color, touch, and bean-grinding technologies would be February 2012, but of course that kind of logic would make no sense at all, and I have to think that such a product will be launched either in October 2011 or 10-12 months later.

Of course all such speculation is silly, but like Berryman on boredom, we must never say so.

Meanwhile, if you are catching all of these waves just right and it is time for you to return a recently purchased Kindle, I’ve updated my recent post —Getting a New Kindle? How to Return, Sell, or Otherwise Dispose of Your Existing Kindle — to include a link to the essential product returns page that will help you generate a return shipping label.

• Pacific Avenue by Anne Watson – “Where do you go from the end of the line?” – $0.99